Locke Immigration Law estimate: an India-born applicant filing an EB-2 petition (including a national interest waiver) today sits behind roughly 712,720 people. At recent visa-supply rates that implies a wait on the order of 55–174 years — decades to a lifetime. This is a firm estimate derived from USCIS approved-petition backlog counts (Jun 2026) and State Dept annual visa supply, not a published date; it assumes today’s supply and backlog hold.
Because a national interest waiver is an EB-2 petition, an NIW applicant inherits the EB-2 backlog above. Worldwide EB-2 tracks close to current, but India- and China-born petitioners face the multi-year — for India, multi-decade — waits shown. If your evidence can also support EB-1A (extraordinary ability) or EB-1B, that category rides years ahead.
Source: U.S. State Dept Visa Bulletin (travel.state.gov), Final Action Dates. “Current” is plotted at the filing month; “Unavailable” periods are drawn as gaps. Educational, not legal advice — check the current bulletin. Data as of 2026-10-22.